The traditional view of growth and fluctuations implies that aggregate demand shocks result in only transitory departures from trend or “normal” output, which is determined exclusively by aggregate supply factors. Using a simple dynamic framework for a less-developed economy, a series of models is developed to show that aggregate demand can have a permanent effect on economic growth. It is show...

A central problem ill empirical macroeconomics is to determine when and how much the exchange rate is misaligned. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of’ the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector auto regression (VAR) model. By imposing long—run restrictions on a VAR model for Iran, lour structural shocks are identified: nominal demand, real demand, supply and oi...

95 Pacific Economic Bulletin volume 24 number 2 july 2009 © the australian national University This article examines the volatility in Fiji’s foreign reserves—in particular, whether shocks have an asymmetrical effect on volatility and whether shocks have a persistent impact on volatility. In the pre-coup period (1975–86), shocks had a temporary effect on volatility; in the coup period (1987–200...

The purpose of this paper is to provide an introduction to the methodology known as Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) analysis and to examine its applicability in the context of Irish macroeconomics. The SVAR approach has been developed over the last decade to interpret business cycle fluctuations and to help identify the effects of different economic policies. It is an extension on the t...

Previous work by Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, addressed the question of whether poor economic performance has a causal effect on civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Using year-to-year rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth, MSS (2004) find that economic growth is strongly, negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of 5...

This study investigates the impacts of negative economic shocks on child schooling in households of rural Malawi, one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Both individually-reported and community-level shocks are investigated. There is evidence that community level shocks negatively impact the school enrolment of children. The point estimates suggest that this effect is larger ...

Purpose: The goal of the article is to identify transmission mechanisms economic shocks in EAEU, and determine impact external on key macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical framework: While there a considerable body literature channels shocks, remains need for empirical studies precise these crucial indicators, including but not limited GDP, public debt, exchange rates. Design/methodology/approa...

The digital economy forms a set of new challenges to the higher education system, namely: accelerating pace socio-economic transformations; transformation information into commodity and productive force; large-scale digitalization economic entities; virtualization workplaces; active introduction communication technologies; creation global field; exacerbation cybersecurity problems. In such cond...