The Cp selection criterion is a popular method to choose the smoothing parameter in spline regression. Another widely used method is the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) derived from a normal-theory empirical Bayes framework. These two seemingly unrelated methods, have been shown in Efron (Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 470) and Kou and Efron (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 97 (2002) 766) to be actually...

Some naturalistic philosophers of mind subscribing to the predictive processing theory have adopted a realist attitude towards results Bayesian cognitive science. In this article, we argue that is unwarranted. The research programme in science does not possess special epistemic virtues over alternative approaches for explaining mental phenomena involving uncertainty. particular, approach simple...

This paper uses Kolb's learning cycle theory to develop an instructional design based on the Bayes’ formula for experiential learning. Students experience in their own trustworthiness calculations that declines rapidly after lying. Through reflection and observation, they understand how information correct probability, make students pay attention collecting more life order obtain accurate decis...