برای دستیابی به مزیت رقابتی در شرایط عدم‌­اطمینان که آن تغییر ضروری است، یکی از چالش‌های بزرگ سازمان‌ها کاهش ریسک طریق ایجاد زنجیره‌های تأمین تاب‌آور است. تاب‌آوری زنجیره ‌تأمین توانایی مقابله با اختلال اشاره دارد یک رویداد غیرقابل‌پیش‌بینی بوده و دارای منابع داخلی خارجی مختلفی ازجمله بلایای طبیعی ریسک‌های عملیاتی پژوهش حاضر شبیه‌سازی توسط نرم‌افزار ارنا زنجیره‌ سنگ ساختمانی «کارخانه سنگبری آسم...

This is an early version of a set of notes for the course on Time Series Analysis offered at Lund University. Any and all comments and suggestions are most welcome and appreciated. Glossary and Abbreviations 1-D, 2-D, etc. One-dimensional, two-dimensional, etc. ACF Auto-covariance function AR Autoregressive ARIMA Integrated ARMA ARMA Autoregressive moving average ARMAX ARMA with exogenous input...

BACKGROUND Predicting the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) plays an important role in planning health control strategies for the future, developing intervention programs and allocating resources. OBJECTIVES The present longitudinal study estimated the incidence of tuberculosis in 2014 using Box-Jenkins methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS Monthly data of tuberculosis cases recorded in the surveilla...

Background. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common respiratory condition characterized by progressive dyspnea and acute exacerbations which may result in emergency department (ED) presentations. This study examines monthly rates of presentations to EDs in one Canadian province. Methods. Presentations for COPD made by individuals aged ≥55 years during April 1999 to March 2011 w...

background: determining the temporal variation and forecasting the incidence of smear positive tuberculosis (tb) can play an important role in promoting the tb control program. its results may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning and allocating resources. the present study forecasts the incidence of smear positive tb in iran. methods: this a longitudinal study using monthly tuberc...

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB. METHODS This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012....

Swarm intelligence (SI) is widely and successfully applied in the engineering field to solve practical optimization problems because various hybrid models, which are based on the SI algorithm and statistical models, are developed to further improve the predictive abilities. In this paper, hybrid intelligent forecasting models based on the cuckoo search (CS) as well as the singular spectrum anal...

The majority of greenhouse gas (GHG) effects are caused by very high levels carbon emissions in the world. Therefore, it is necessary to take action control In this study, world's emission were forecasted based on time series data from 1949 2018 North America. This study uses 2 forecasting methods, namely SARIMA and LSTM, with consideration that both methods considered capable providing good re...