This paper constructs and estimates the demand for international tourism for the Italian Province of Sassari. The sample period under estimation is from 1972 to 1995. Three dynamic models are estimated at monthly, annual and quarterly data frequencies. Similarities and differences are explored amongst the three models, using recently developed econometric techniques. A “premodelling” data analy...

Using a small macroeconometric model that examines the determinants of India’s trade and inflation, this paper addresses the effects of a reform policy package similar to those implemented in 1991. Policy simulations using dynamic simulation method compare the responses to devaluation with the responses to tight credit policy. It is shown that the trade balance effects of tight credit policy ar...

This paper focusses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focusses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other mod...

Nonlinearities in the drift and diffusion coefficients influence temporal dependence in scalar diffusion models. We study this link using two notions of temporal dependence: β − mixing and ρ − mixing. We show that β − mixing and ρ − mixing with exponential decay are essentially equivalent concepts for scalar diffusions. For stationary diffusions that fail to be ρ−mixing, we show that they are s...

This paper explores some implications for valuation and investment of challenging the standard assumption that there are no aggregate pure profits in the US economy. First, it highlights the theoretical importance of monopoly rents for fluctuations in average Q. A series for such rents is then computed by assuming that production is Cobb-Douglas, as fluctuations in the output share of pure prof...

We provide necessary and su¢ cient conditions for e¤ect identi…cation, thereby characterizing the limits to identi…cation. Our results link the non-structural potential outcome framework for identifying and estimating treatment e¤ects to structural approaches in economics. This permits economic theory to be built into treatment e¤ect methods. We elucidate the sources and consequences of identi…...

We present the regression-based Monte Carlo simulation algorithms for solving the stochastic control models associated with pricing and hedging of the Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) in variable annuities, where the dynamics of the underlying fund value is assumed to evolve according to the stochastic volatility model. The GLWB offers a lifelong withdrawal benefit even when the po...

We apply a logistic smooth transition market model (LSTM) to a sample of returns on Australian industry portfolios to investigate whether bull and bear market betas differ. Unlike other studies, our LSTM model allows for smooth transition between bull and bear states and allows the data to determine the threshold value. The estimated value of the smoothness parameter was very large for all indu...

Binary events are involved in many economic decision problems. In recent years, considerable progress has been made in diverse disciplines in developing models for forecasting binary outcomes. We distinguish between two types of forecasts for binary events that are generally obtained as the output of regression models: probability forecasts and point forecasts. We summarize specification, estim...

Background The changes in corneal biomechanical properties after LASIK remain an unknown but important topic for surgical design and prognostic evaluation. This study aims to observe the postoperative corneal biomechanical properties one month after LASIK with amount of corneal cutting (ACC) greater than 50% of the central corneal thickness (CCT). Methods FS-LASIK was performed in 10 left rab...