(1) United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Arthropod-Borne Animal Diseases Research Laboratory, Dept. 3354, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, United States of America (2) Present address: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, NCID/DVRD/Special Pathogens Branch, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Building 15-SB, Mailstop G14, Atlanta, GA 30333, Uni...

In this article we provide a review of the literature with respect to the e$cient markets hypothesis and chaos. In doing so, we contrast the martingale behavior of asset prices to nonlinear chaotic dynamics, discuss some recent techniques used in distinguishing between probabilistic and deterministic behavior in asset prices, and report some evidence. Moreover, we look at the controversies that...

This paper presents an overview of how single stock futures (SSF) have developed since their introduction in the United States. We present a number of reasons why individual investor interest in SSF may not have reached its potential. Individual investors should note SSF volumes are very low and implied interest rates indicate that SSF settlement prices often have little relation to their respe...

This article examines the performance of 85 UK unit trusts with North American investment objectives between January 1985 and December 1996 using unconditional and conditional performance measures. The paper finds that, on average, the trusts register insignificant performance to each of the respective benchmark portfolios. In addition there is no evidence of any predictability in performance. ...

This paper investigates the effect of different risk attitudes on the financial decisions of two insiders trading in the stock market. We consider a static version of the Kyle (1985) model with two insiders. Insider 1 is risk neutral while insider 2 is risk averse with negative exponential utility. First, we prove the existence of a unique linear equilibrium. Second, we obtain somewhat surprisi...

I analyze annual returns of the S&P 500 from 1993 – 1998. Future returns of the market are predicted using current dividend yield levels, past risk free returns and a standard deviation variable over the preceding five years. Evidence from the article suggests that future returns can be predicted when combing dividend yields with recent volatility in the market. This article suggests that recen...

Using 5-year credit default swap (CDS) contracts on 1,247 U.S. firms from 2003 2011, we show a 3-month formation and 1-month holding period CDS momentum strategy yields 52 bps per month. By incorporating past CDS return signals, we further show traditional stock momentum strategies avoid abrupt losses during the crisis period and improve their performance by net 104 bps per month. Both within C...

We test the no-trade theorem in a laboratory financial market where subjects can trade an asset whose value is unknown. Subjects receive clues on the asset value and then set a bid and an ask at which they are willing to buy or to sell from the other participants. In treatments with no gains from trade, we should observe no trading activity, whereas, in treatments with gains, trade becomes theo...

This paper develops a model of information acquisition and portfolio choice under short-sale constraints. We show that short-sale constraints reduce information acquisition and both the constraints on short-selling and the reduced information acquisition affect investment decisions. The effects of short-sale constraints on investment decisions and asset prices are driven largely by the effects ...

We undertook the first market trading experiments that allowed heterogeneously informed subjects to trade in endogenous time, collecting over 2000 observed trades. Subjects’ decisions were generally in line with the predictions of exogenous-time financial herding theory when that theory is adjusted to allow rational informational herding and contrarianism. While herding and contrarianism did no...