This paper examines the conditions required to guarantee positive prices in the CAPM. Positive prices imply an upper bound on the equity premium. This upper bound depends on the degree of diversity of firms’ fundamentals, and it is independent of investors’ preferences. In economies with realistically diverse assets the only positive-price CAPM equilibrium theoretically possible is a degenerate...

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This paper establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions, productivity advances can only have temporary effects on the fundamentals of equity prices. Using historical...

We consider the effects a public revelation of information (e.g. rating, grade) has on trading in a dynamic signaling model. Competing buyers offer prices to a privately informed seller who can reject them and delay trade. Delay is costly and the seller has no commitment to its duration. The external public information allows for signaling in equilibrium. More interestingly, we characterize the...

accentuate on the programs advocated by the IMF and the World Bank from the model known as the "Integrated Model IMF-World Bank". This research makes a comprehensive evaluation of the applicability of this model to analyze the performance of adjustment programs in the case of six countries in the Mediterranean and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, namely, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Morocco...

We examine two important aspects of Australia’s terms of trade using 135 years of annual data up to 2003/04. Since Australia predominantly exports commodities and imports manufactures, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis suggests that there should be a negative trend in the terms of trade. But the trend is no more than −0.1 per cent per annum, less than the trend decline in world commodity prices re...

We experimentally explore how investor decision horizons influence the formation of stock prices. We find that in long-horizon sessions, where investors collect dividends till maturity, prices converge to the fundamental levels derived from dividends through backward induction. In short-horizon sessions, where investors exit the market by receiving the price (not dividends), price levels and pa...

Food Security and Wheat Prices in Afghanistan: A Distribution-Sensitive Analysis of Household-Level Impacts We investigate the impact of increases in wheat flour prices on household food security using unique nationally-representative data collected in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2008. We use a new estimator, the Unconditional Quantile Regression (UQR) estimator, based on influence functions to ex...

This paper implements a reduced form credit default swap (CDS) pricing model. Theoretical prices found are compared with market prices to evaluate the goodness of fit. Theoretical prices and pricing errors are inspected by rating classes, sectors of economic activity and currency denomination of CDS. Pricing errors are analyzed through panel data estimation techniques, to find determinants of p...

We consider a frictional market where buyers are uncoordinated and sellers cannot commit ex-ante to either a per-unit price or quantity of a divisible good. Sellers then can exploit their local monopoly power by adjusting prices or quantities once the local demand is realized. We find that when sellers can adjust quantities ex-post, there exists a unique symmetric equilibrium where the increase...

This paper investigates the optimality of sharp incentives in contracts where output prices are set at the time of contracting but are random in nature. It shows that when prices are specified with error, schemes involving sharp incentives might result in substantial deviations from first-best output levels. The randomness of prices creates arbitrage opportunities that are exploited by agents p...