It is not often that one is asked to provide a commentary on an article that one expects to become a cornerstone of justifications for new psychiatric research (and especially longitudinal and developmental research), but that is what ‘‘Childhood Problem Behaviors and Death by Midlife: The British National Child Development Study’’ is. It is also scary to claim that this is the first study of i...

This paper documents the tendency of mutual fund managers to follow analyst recommendation revisions when they trade stocks, and the impact of analyst revisioninduced mutual fund “herds” on stock prices. We find that mutual fund herds follow consensus revisions in analyst recommendations, controlling for common investment signals that affect both analyst revisions and mutual fund trading. Conse...

We test whether short-sellers in U.S. stocks are able to predict future returns based on new SEC-mandated data for 2005. There is a tremendous amount of short-selling activity during the sample: Short-sales represent 24 percent of NYSE and 32 percent of Nasdaq share volume. Our analysis shows that short-sellers primarily target short-term overreaction in stock prices, but they are also able to ...

Consistent with prior evidence about greater persistence of revenues and greater noise caused by heterogeneity of expenses, this study shows that the post-earningsannouncement-drift is stronger when the revenue surprise is in the same direction as the earnings surprise. The results of the study are consistent for the earnings and revenue surprise estimated from historical time series and also f...

=222 1 695. Gorton, Gary B. 2012. Misunderstanding Financial Crises : Why We Don't See Them Coming. Oxford,UK: Oxford University Press.Haase, Knut, Habib Zain Al Abideen, SalimAl-Bosta, Mathias Kasper, Matthes Koch, SvenMuller, and Dirk Helbing. 2016. "ImprovingPilgrim Safety during the Hajj: An Analytical andOperational Research Approach." Interfaces 46(1):74-90. Ha...

The Institutional Features of the Prisoners of War Treaties by James D. Morrow Formal treaties on the treatment of prisoners of war (POWs) were negotiated and ratified during the 20th century. These treaties create a system for the treatment of POWs with universal and detailed standards and decentralized enforcement. I explain the form of the POW system as a rational institutional response to f...