Fall 2008 Issue 11 FORESIGHT Stephan Kolassa is Vice President of Corporate Research at SAF AG in Switzerland. He has worked extensively with some of Europe’s largest retail chains in producing automatic forecasts for large batches of products. Stephan and his colleague Wolfgang Schütz coauthored “Advantages of the MAD/MEAN Ratio Over the MAPE” in Foresight’s Spring 2007 issue. INTRODUCTION Sal...

Markov forecasting is a prediction method which the application in probability theory of Markov chain theory and method to study the change rules of the economic phenomenon and in order to predict the future situation. The purpose of this paper is to apply Markov chain theory to the actual market share analysis, it established Markov forecasting model of market share. This model was applied to ...

【Methods】 Outcome measure; sales volume (DDD/ 1,000inhabitants and day, Quarterly) Selected drugs; ACE inhibitors (ACEs; ATC code C09A) Angiotensin IIantagonists (ARBs; ATC code C09C) Study periods; Jan, 2002 – Dec, 2012 Jan, 2002 – Mar, 2013 Data source; from the Swedish eHealth Agency (e-hälsomyndigheten) Drug sales data (by IMS Japan) Statistical analysis Th...

In this paper, we study a supply chain system which consists of one manufacturer and two retailers including a traditional retailer and an online retailer. In order to gain a larger market share, the retailers often take the sales as a decision-making variable in the competition game. We devote ourselves to analyze the bullwhip effect in the supply chain with sales game and consumer returns via...

the purpose of this study is presenting a model forecasting financial crisis in tehran stock exchange listed companies. to do this, productive firms that had been accepted in tehran stock exchange between 2002 and 2009, were selected as the study sample. first the independent variables were obtained based on financial ratios and then based on article 141 of the law of commerce, the insolvent an...

This thesis consists of three journal papers that I have been worked on during my PhD program of study. The first paper presents heuristic algorithms that are designed to be implemented and executed in parallel with an existing algorithm in order to overcome its two limitations. Computational experiments show that implementing the heuristic algorithm on one auxiliary processor in parallel with ...

This paper is a case study on how pharmaceuticals are prescribed on the NHS in the UK. The paper discusses the modelling and forecasting of pharmaceutical life cycles, specifically around after the time of patent expiry. In this situation one of two things can occur the branded pharmaceutical sales remain high while the generic are low, the alternative is when the branded drug declines and stay...

One of the basic assumptions of management accounting illustrate that costschanges has a significance Relationship with increasing and decreasing in the levelof activity, recently after being raised of sticky costs issue by Anderson and hiscolleagues this assumption was discussed. It means Increases in costs by increasingthe more activity level of reduction in costs is exchange for the reductio...

The purpose of this study is presenting a model forecasting financial crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange listed companies. To do this, productive firms that had been accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange between 2002 and 2009, were selected as the study sample. First the independent variables were obtained based on financial ratios and then based on Article 141 of the Law of Commerce, the insolvent an...