This paper proposes a robust semiparametric bootstrap method to estimate predictive distributions of GARCH-type models. The method is based on a robust estimation of parametric GARCH models and a robustified resampling scheme for GARCH residuals that controls bootstrap instability due to outlying observations. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that our robust method provides more accurate VaR fore...

In engineering application heuristics are widely used for discrete optimization tasks. We report two cases (in Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing and High Level Synthesis), where a recent “intelligent” heuristic (STAGE) performs excellently by learning a value-function of the states. We have found that if a global structure of local minima is found by the function approximator then search t...

Return value prediction (RVP) is a technique for guessing the return value from a function before it actually completes, enabling a number of program optimizations and analyses. However, despite the apparent usefulness, RVP and value prediction in general have seen limited uptake in practice. Hardware proposals have been successful in terms of speed and prediction accuracy, but the cost of dedi...

The capability of Degree Heating Weeks index (DHWs) was examined for prediction of bleaching events in the coral reef communities of the Kish Island located in the north of the Persian Gulf. In doing so, weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) values (in 1°×1° spatial resolution) prepared by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with documented bleaching events, such...

Detection of anti-hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV) antibodies may yield a high frequency of false-positive results in people at low risk. To date, no clinical rule had been developed to predict viremia in HCV-seropositive patients. Therefore, we aimed to generate a prediction rule on the basis of clinical and serologic data, which can be used in outpatient care. We selected 114 seropositive patient...

Prediction markets have been adopted to forecast events (trends) and manage risks related to the events in different projects. This paper scrutinises the first prediction market system (PMS) established in Taiwan, which shows favourable accuracy of the PMS in predicting infectious diseases comparing with expected value of historical data for the same period. It further analyses the incentive st...

OBJECTIVES The objective was to develop and validate a risk model for the likelihood of extensive white matter lesions (extWML) to inform clinicians on whether to proceed with or forgo diagnostic MRI. DESIGN Population-based cohort study and multivariable prediction model. SETTING Two representative samples from France. PARTICIPANTS Persons aged 60-80 years without dementia or stroke. Der...

Anticipation and delivery of rewards improves memory formation, but little effort has been made to disentangle their respective contributions to memory enhancement. Moreover, it has been suggested that the effects of reward on memory are mediated by dopaminergic influences on hippocampal plasticity. Yet, evidence linking memory improvements to actual reward computations reflected in the activit...

BACKGROUND Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with type 2 diabetes through the past years. In previous studies, the usefulness of these genetic markers for prediction of diabetes was found to be limited. However, differences may exist between substrata of the population according to the presence of major diabetes risk factors. Thi...