We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1978-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We rees...

This paper investigates forecasts of US in#ation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. In#ation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commo...

The Wald test for linear restrictions on cointegrating vectors is compared in nite samples using the Monte Carlo method. The Wald test within the vector error-correction based methods of Bewley et al. fully modiied ordinary least squares method of Phillips and Hansen (1990), and the band spectral techniques of Phillips (1991) are considered. In terms of test size, Jo-hansen's method seems to be...