When a disease breaks out in a human population, changes in behavior in response to the outbreak can alter the progression of the infectious agent. In particular, people aware of a disease in their proximity can take measures to reduce their susceptibility. Even if no centralized information is provided about the presence of a disease, such awareness can arise through first-hand observation and...

Methods: This study decomposes existing temporal aberration detection algorithms into two sequential stages and investigates the individual impact of each stage on outbreak detection performance. The data forecasting stage (Stage 1) generates predictions of time series values a certain number of time steps in the future based on historical data. The anomaly measure stage (Stage 2) compares feat...

Numerous virulent and widespread diseases are related to water. The transmission and outbreak of water-related diseases are closely coupled to their hydrological environment. Changes in this environment and the associated hydrological processes may affect the occurrence and virulence of waterrelated diseases. Environmental changes can be manifold, including e.g. climate and land use, agricultur...

We assess how presymptomatic infection affects predictability of infectious disease epidemics. We focus on whether or not a major outbreak (i.e. an epidemic that will go on to infect a large number of individuals) can be predicted reliably soon after initial cases of disease have appeared within a population. For emerging epidemics, significant time and effort is spent recording symptomatic cas...

This review synthesizes the conflicting outbreak predictions generated by different biological assumptions in host-vector disease models. It is motivated by the North American outbreak of West Nile virus, an emerging infectious disease that has prompted at least five dynamical modelling studies. Mathematical models have long proven successful in investigating the dynamics and control of infecti...

The global outbreak of the COVID-19 and measures taken, disrupted fundamentally economies around world. Almost all sectors were affected. experts have long emphasised Czech economy’s dependence on automotive industry. Car producers companies linked to them been loaded by severe difficulties after pandemic outbreak. article shows one constructive ways how forecast a change in passenger cars prod...

As the pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) rages worldwide, accurate modeling dynamics thereof is essential. However, since availability and quality data vary dramatically from region to region, directly a global perspective difficult. Nevertheless, via local collected by certain regions, it possible develop prediction tools, which may be coupled models. In this study, we analyze ou...

In Part I of this paper series, the dynamic equations, numerical solution procedures and the parameterizations of subgrid-scale and PBL turbulence of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) were described. The dynamic and numerical framework of the model was veri®ed using idealized and real mountain ̄ow cases and an idealized density current. In this Part II, we present the treatment of o...

background: following the outbreak of eltor cholera in iraq’s kurdistan, iran was threatened through the western border. therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the health system response of marivan city in kurdistan province (iran) as a risky gateway for the outbreak of eltor cholera epidemic in iran. materials and methods: this cross-sectional study was implemented in marivan ...