We present a simple theoretical framework that integrates the notion of the natural or neutral interest rate, liquidity preference theory, and the monetary policy practice by modern central banks. We claim that this theory explains the conditions under which an economy will experience an aggregate demand deficiency problem within a modern institutional setting. Contrary to the predictions of th...

This paper examines optimal monetary policy in an open-economy two-country model with sticky prices. We find that optimal policy must target not only inflation and the output gap, but also the currency misalignment. However the interest rate reaction function that supports this targeting rule involves only the CPI inflation rate. This result highlights how examination of interest-rate reaction ...

A central question in emerging-market macroeconomics is what factors lead countries to accumulate excessive levels of external debt. It is often argued by economic observers and policymakers that emerging markets tend to overborrow when the lending decisions of foreign financial institutions are guided by rough indicators of the emerging country’s macroeconomic performance, and not by careful a...

Vector autoregressive models are often used in Macroeconomics to draw conclusions about the effects of policy innovations. However, those results depend on the researcher’s priors about the particular ordering of the variables. As an alternative, this paper presents a very simple rule based on the maximum entropy principle that can be used to find the “most likely” ordering. The proposal is ill...

We introduce a model of endogenous growth which is driven by human capital augmentation as a by-product of consumption activities on the part of households. The growth rate is determined via a preference parameter unrelated to the rate of time preference. Positive feedback in the evolution of preferences, a well-attested phenomenon, can lead to nonergodicity and path dependence: the asymptotic ...

In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate. We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the widely used linear...

This study has examined the impact of inflation on GDP and unemployment rate in Pakistan. It was a longitudinal study for the period in 2000-2010. The data has been taken from secondary sources. The study concludes that inflation insignificantly influences GDP and unemployment and the correlation is negative. The correlation between unemployment and inflation is positive i.e. 0.477 and is insig...

In an attempt to explain and forecast the behavior of economic variables and of the economy as a whole, each school of economics creates its own system of paradigms, premises and models. The New Keynesian school of thought developed from the traditional Keynesian insights tries to offer additional explanations, based on microeconomic foundations, for such phenomena as economy-wide fluctuations ...

We review the emerging literature on information acquisition in field settings. first document an increase studies and relevant different subfields of economics, including macroeconomics, political economy, labor health finance. next provide overview empirical techniques to measure discuss advantages disadvantages methods. then how one can design test predictions theories acquisition. conclude ...

Abstract This is a heterodox review of Political Economy, Macroeconomics and Business Management on the readjustment effect in tourism sector due to impact digital transition its aggravation with COVID-19 crisis Ukraine war. A synthesis paradigmatic change economy how it affects labor professional relations proposed, requiring transformation economic system production process. Attention focused...