Purpose: This study utilizes the KNV measure to evaluate performance of national pension funds Korea. Design/methodology/approach: First, this investigates whether fund managers pick stocks in expansions and time market recessions. Second, we examine skilled that have both high picking skill booms timing Third, ability as well ability. Finally, persistence indexes is investigated. Findings: mor...

This study investigates whether discount rate changes serve as an informative signal for investors to enter or exit the stock market. Based on the signal, a market timing strategy is formulated and its performance relative to a passive buy-and-hold strategy is tested with several performance evaluation methods. Empirical evidence derived from data of seven developed countries over more than 29 ...

Priced level, slope, and volatility risk factors recently proposed in the finance literature help explain long-standing puzzles related to the cross-section of carry trade returns. In this paper, we examine whether the information contained in these global factors allows foreign exchange market speculators in individual currencies to successfully time the direction of their carry trades, both w...

An agent based model is developed in which leaders arise endogenously from a social network. Leaders are defined as early adopters of a subsequently popular product or trend. They become leaders by attracting a network of imitators. Agents seek to become leaders themselves, or to develop a direct link to a leader in order to increase the chance of becoming an early adopter in a social hierarchy...

Determining the optimal market entry timing for successive technological innovations is a critical decision for firms. Pioneering studies dealing with this issue have focused one-time sale (e.g., HDTV), and concluded that a new product should be introduced to the market either now or never, or now or at maturity. However, these prior studies do not examine another commonly seen business practic...

this paper investigates the connection between market valuation anda type of the merger (stock, cash) using real options setup. i solveexplicitly for the timing and terms of cash mergers in two deferent settingsto demonstrate that cash mergers generally occur at low marketvaluations, whereas stock mergers that may be observed at both low andhigh valuations; the result holds with some dierences...

the introductory issue of the journal of financial research contains six articles in farsi and one in english. it also offers a glossary of financial terminology. the first article deals with the efficient capital market hypothesis , and is authored by dr. ali jahankhani & hussein abdoh tabrizi. it explains the concept and theories of capital market efficiency and their historical development i...

The 2008 financial crisis exemplifies significant uncertainties in corporate financing conditions. We develop a unified dynamic q-theoretic framework where firms have both a precautionary-savings motive and a market-timing motive for external financing and payout decisions, induced by stochastic financing conditions. The model predicts (1) cuts in investment and payouts in bad times and equity ...

Investor sentiment index based on actual trader positions is useful for forecasting S&P 500 index futures returns. We find that large speculator sentiment is a price continuation indicator, whereas large hedger sentiment is a weak contrary indicator. Small trader sentiment does not forecast returns. We show that extreme levels and the combination of extreme levels of sentiments of the two types...