N recent years, many countries have experienced “stagflation,” a period of high and rising inflation and unemployment. Over this time, higher inflation increasingly has come to be blamed for higher unemployment and reduced growth of real output. This contrasts sharply with previously held notions that there was either a long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment or a “natural rate of ...

This study aims to determine the effect of exchange rate towards stock return mediated with variable inflation rates and interest rates. The population is a company listed on Index LQ45 period January 2015 – December 2019. quantitative using purposive sampling technique obtained sample number 28 companies monthly start from until data source in this are secondary data. analysis used path accomp...

The longtime perplexing purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle has been recently resolved empirically by using the pure price inflation rates extracted and estimated by a pioneering financial-asset pricing approach. Applying the same extracted inflation rates, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model of prices and the Japanese yen per U.S. dollar exchange rate, and find strong evidence s...

In this paper we approach the inflation expectations and the real interest rate by using the information contained in the yield curve. We decompose nominal interest rates into real risk-free rates, inflation expectations and risk premia using an affine model that takes as factors the observed inflation rate and the parameters generated in the zero yield curve estimation. Under this approach we ...

Today many argue that there appears to be an epidemic case of “fear of floating”. Some have further claimed that credible inflation targeting – a popular regime choice today – and fear of floating are identical regimes. This paper takes a different view. We modify Calvo and Reinhart’s (2002) approach to analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, interest rates and inflation across 88 exc...

This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods' prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of "pure" inflation: the common component in goods' inflation rates that has an equiproportional effect on all prices and is...

With inflation and policy interest rates at historically low levels, policymakers show great concern about "downside tail risks" due to a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Low probability or tail events, such as sustained deflation or recession, are disruptive for the economy and can be difficult to resolve. This paper shows that price-level targeting mitigates downside tail risks res...

Describing the nature of the trade-off between inflation and output or unemployment has long been difficult and controversial. The Friedman-Phelps hypothesis, that there is no long-run Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment, has clearly won over most macro-. economists, but the debate has continued over what, if any, trade-off remains. The subtle notion that an uncertain sh...