In this paper we examine whether variation in investors’ demand for risky assets is associated with recoveries on defaulted debt securities. Our examination is motivated by the prediction of standard portfolio separation theorems that an increase in aggregate investor risk aversion is associated with a decrease in the demand for the market portfolio of risky assets. Motivated by this prediction...

In this paper we study how corporate bond defaults can be predicted using financial ratios and how the forecasted probability of default relates to the cross-section of expected stock returns. Using several performance measures we find that the duration model outperforms existing models in correctly classifying both Default and Non-Default firms. Using the default probabilities predicted by our...

We study how interactions between financing and investment decisions can shape firm boundaries in innovative markets. In particular, we model innovative projects as growth options and ask whether they are best operated inside large incumbent firms (Integration) or in separate, specialized firms (Non-Integration). Starting from a standard theoretical framework, in which value-maximizing corporat...

Using a unique dataset obtained from large-scale panel enterprise surveys conducted in 2005 and 2009, we clarify the survival status of Russian industrial firms before and after the global financial crisis and empirically examine the determinants of firm survival. The estimation of the Cox proportional hazard model provided evidence that the independence of company’s governance bodies, their hu...

We study whether firms spread out debt maturity dates, which we call “granularity of corporate debt.” In our model, firms that are unable to roll over expiring debt need to liquidate assets. If multiple small asset sales are less inefficient than a single large one, it can be optimal to diversify debt rollovers across time. Using a large sample of corporate bond issuers during the 1991–2012 per...

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of legal institutions on entrepreneurial firm dynamics. Owners choose firm size, financial structure and default to manage risk. We find: (i) Less risk averse entrepreneurs run bigger firms and it is optimal for them to incorporate, while more risk averse entrepreneurs run smaller firms and generally are better off remaining unincorporated. (ii) Mor...

I study the optimal architecture of bank supervision in a federal system. A central supervisor gets information about a bank, for instance through stress-testing, and decides whether an on-site examination should be performed by a local or a central authority. Local supervisors have lower inspection costs, but do not internalize crossborder externalities. The optimal degree of centralization de...

This paper seeks to encompass elements of both the Modigliani and Miller (1958, 1963) and Jensen and Meckling (1976) approaches to optimal capital structure within a unified framework with shadow costs of incomplete information. Making the most of the major work of Merton (1987), Leland (1996, 1998) and Bellalah (2001a), we put forward a model that reflects the interaction of financing decision...

This paper examines the optimal mix and priority structure of bank and market debt using a tax shield-bankruptcy cost tradeoff model where the only unique feature of banks is their ability to renegotiate. Closed-form expressions are derived for the values of renegotiable bank debt, non-renegotiable market debt, equity, and levered firm values. Optimal debt structure hinges upon ex post bargaini...

I study the implications of various bankruptcy regimes for student loans on college investment, human capital accumulation, and earnings in a heterogeneous life-cycle economy with risky human capital investment. The option to discharge one’s debt under a liquidation regime helps alleviate some of the risk of investing in human capital. However, dischargeability triggers exclusion from borrowing...