Mortgage-backed securities differ from corporate and government bonds in that their cash flows cannot be estimated with certainty, since homeowners often prepay their mortgages. Prepayments may include sale of the property, refinancing, curtailments, or liquidation of the property due to foreclosure. Standard fixed-income measurements, which allow investors to compare different types of bonds, ...

This paper studies optimal access pricing for natural monopoly networks with large sunk costs and uncertain revenues. Using techniques from the option pricing literature, we show that the optimal access price corresponds to a risk-free form of the Efficiency Component Pricing Rule (ECPR), that is, where the opportunity cost is based on the risk free rate of return. We also show that at levels o...

This paper presents a simple Excel model that provides measures of the standard deviation of forecasted internal rate of return (IRR) given traditional data inputs such as annual cash flows, terminal values and equity. The model first calculates IRR using traditional discounted cash flow methods and then provides heuristic estimates of variability measured in terms of ‘‘high,’’ ‘‘low’’ and ‘‘mo...

In these notes, we formally prove that the effort and retention policies that maximize the firm’s profits are independent of realized cash flows. The proof is in two steps. The first step establishes that, in any mechanism that is incentive compatible and sequentially individually rational for the managers, the firm’s expected profits from each manager it hires are given by a formula analogous ...

The valuation of a company is difficult, even for companies which evolve in a well-known, mature industry. The problem is far more comple , when the firm is a new born start-up company, where the traditional methods based on future free cash flows are difficult to apply, given the difficulties of estimating the future cash flows. In addition, with the start up companies, we are confronted with ...

Cash flows are often modeled using the random geometric growth model (geometric Brownian motion). One of the reasons for using this model is that it is simple to implement and it is a reasonable approximation to random growth cash flows such as stock prices. For this model the volatility of the cash flow grows multiplicatively over time. This multiplicative characteristic is shared by the usual...

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is the most accepted approach for company valuation. It is well grounded in theory and practice. However, the DCF approach, which is commonly used for traditional companies valuation, presents a number of serious weaknesses within the Internet companies’ context. One of these weaknesses is tackling the uncertainty that characterize future cash flows of these companies...

Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) simulates human way of solving problems as it solves a new problem using a successful past experience applied to a similar problem. In this paper we describe a CBR system that performs forecasts for cash flow accounts. Forecasting cash flows to a certain degree of accuracy, is an important aspect of a Working Capital decision support system. Working Capital (WC) manag...

Analysis of non-laminar flows in coarse alluvial beds has a wide range of applications in various civil engineering, oil and gas, and geology problems. Darcy equation is not valid to analyze transient and turbulent flows, so non-linear equations should be applied. Non-linear equations are classified into power and binomial equations. Binomial equation is more accurate in a wide range of velocit...