Failure to timely identify the occurrence of various shocks in the foreign exchange market due to the close relationship with the monetary, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty can lead to crises and imbalances. In this paper, the effect of exchange rate and investor confidence on monetary and economic uncertainty in Iran is investigated, specifying a Multivariate GARCH model and the Grange...

in this article, real exchange rate behavior and its effects on macroeconomic variables are studied by explaining two models; impulse function and forecasting predicted error decomposition. studies show that high artificial currency value has caused domestic and foreign accounts equilibrium disturbance and foreign income decrease due to the slackening of commercial and agricultural activities, ...

We argue that a higher share of the private sector in a country’s external debt raises the incentive to stabilize the exchange rate. We present a simple model in which exchange rate volatility does not affect agents’ welfare if all the debt is incurred by the government. Once we introduce private banks who borrow in foreign currency and lend to domestic firms, the monetary authority has an ince...

Accurately forecasting the foreign exchange rate is important for export-oriented enterprises. For this purpose, a fuzzy and neural approach is applied in this study. In the fuzzy and neural approach, multiple experts construct fuzzy linear regression (FLR) equations from various viewpoints to forecast the foreign exchange rate. Each FLR equation can be converted into two equivalent nonlinear p...

In this article, demand equations for import of consumer, intermediate and capital goods for the period 1971(2) to 1999(1), is estimated and analyzed, using the ARDL Pesaran & Shin method. The results show that the behavior of the different categories of imported goods in Iran is best explained by the parallel market exchange rate, implying this rate is a closer approximation fir the opportunit...

Principal-agent problems between corporate parent and subsidiary operations are frequently exacerbated in international settings by exchange rate fluctuations between the foreign subsidiary’s local currency and the multinational corporation’s (“MNC”) reference currency. This article develops a conceptual solution to resolve this international control conundrum using an Economic Value Added (“EV...

In this paper, we provide a re-examination of the exchange rate exposure and foreign currency derivative use by Australian resources firms in the 2006–2009 period which is characterized by increased volatility caused by the global financial crisis. In particular, we consider the interaction of a resources firm’s exchange rate risk exposures, foreign currency derivative use and the global financ...

The relation between the volatilities of pricing kernels associated with different currencies and the volatility of the exchange rate between the currencies is derived under the assumption of integrated capital markets, and the volatilities of the pricing kernels are related to the foreign exchange risk premium. Time series of pricing kernel volatilities are estimated from panel data on bond yi...