When the objective is to forecast a variable of interest but with many explanatory variables available, one could possibly improve the forecast by carefully integrating them. There are generally two directions one could proceed: combination of forecasts (CF) or combination of information (CI). CF combines forecasts generated from simple models each incorporating a part of the whole information ...

This paper examines the forecasting ability of the dividend-price ratio for international stock market returns. Hitherto, existing research has only considered this issue in-sample and in a linear framework. Hence, this paper provides the first systematic study of non-linear forecasting within the present value model context. Using an asymmetric variant of the popular ESTR model we demonstrate ...

This paper examines the behavior of forecasts made from a co-integrated system as introduced by Granger (1981), Granger and Weiss (1983) and Engle and Granger (1987). It is established that a multi-step forecast will satisfy the co-integrating relation exactly and that this particular linear combination of forecasts will have a finite limiting forecast error variance. A simulation study compare...

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements...

Decision-makers often consult different experts to build reliable forecasts on variables of interest. Combining more opinions and calibrating them to maximize the forecast accuracy is consequently a crucial issue in several economic problems. This paper applies a Bayesian beta mixture model to derive a combined and calibrated density function using random calibration functionals and random comb...

The Proposed Monetary Policy Research Program By forecast targeting Michael Woodford means a policy framework in which monetary policy makers choose their policy instruments so that the expected future values of certain target variables are related to each other in every future period. For example, the forecast of an optimally-chosen linear combination of the inflation rate and the GDP gap, or ...