in this article, real exchange rate behavior and its effects on macroeconomic variables are studied by explaining two models; impulse function and forecasting predicted error decomposition. studies show that high artificial currency value has caused domestic and foreign accounts equilibrium disturbance and foreign income decrease due to the slackening of commercial and agricultural activities, ...

This paper develops a stress-testing model to value defaultable bonds under stressful market conditions. Default occurs when some signaling process hits a pre-defined default barrier. The signaling variable is considered to be some macro-economic variables such as foreign exchange rates. The dynamics of the default barrier depends on the volatility and the drift of the signaling variable. We de...

We argue that a higher share of the private sector in a country’s external debt raises the incentive to stabilize the exchange rate. We present a simple model in which exchange rate volatility does not affect agents’ welfare if all the debt is incurred by the government. Once we introduce private banks who borrow in foreign currency and lend to domestic firms, the monetary authority has an ince...

Accurately forecasting the foreign exchange rate is important for export-oriented enterprises. For this purpose, a fuzzy and neural approach is applied in this study. In the fuzzy and neural approach, multiple experts construct fuzzy linear regression (FLR) equations from various viewpoints to forecast the foreign exchange rate. Each FLR equation can be converted into two equivalent nonlinear p...

We investigate the expectations hypotheses of the term structure of interest rates and of the foreign exchange market using vector autoregressive methods for U.S. dollar, Deutsche mark, and British pound interest rates and exchange rates. We examine Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and distance metric tests by iterating on approximate solutions that require only matrix inversions. Bias-corrected, con...

This paper investigates currency and financial crises in an optimizing general equilibrium model. It is shown that a rise in current and expected future budget deficits generates a real exchange rate appreciation and a decumulation of external assets, leading up to a currency crisis when foreign reserves approximate a critical level. Strong empirical support for our model is obtained by a probi...

In this article, demand equations for import of consumer, intermediate and capital goods for the period 1971(2) to 1999(1), is estimated and analyzed, using the ARDL Pesaran & Shin method. The results show that the behavior of the different categories of imported goods in Iran is best explained by the parallel market exchange rate, implying this rate is a closer approximation fir the opportunit...

This paper studies foreign exchange risk premium using the uncovered interest rate parity framework in a single country context. The analysis is performed using weekly data on foreign and domestic currency deposits in Armenian banking system. The paper provides the results of the simple tests of uncovered interest parity condition, which indicate that contrary to established view dominating in ...

Principal-agent problems between corporate parent and subsidiary operations are frequently exacerbated in international settings by exchange rate fluctuations between the foreign subsidiary’s local currency and the multinational corporation’s (“MNC”) reference currency. This article develops a conceptual solution to resolve this international control conundrum using an Economic Value Added (“EV...