we describe a simple model that fits well with iranian economy, and extends a methodology which chary at el. (2007) demonstrated. in addition to four traditional wedges, we introduce additional trade wedge. we then evaluate the contribution of these wedges to the fluctuations in iran during last three years. because of international sanction, trading cost increases, and firms have difficulty to...

This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MFVAR) approaches to model speci…cation in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g., monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models based on exponential lag polynomials for the coe¢ cients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics and therefore can su¤er from the curse of dimensionality. But if...

This paper explores the extent to which the lack of rationality of economic agents has affected the economic fluctuations and the social welfare of the U.S. hog market. A group of articles has ascribed the business cycles of the hog market, observed by economists as early as the last century, mainly to the lack of rationality (cobweb expectations) of economic agents. In contrast, others, assumi...

Circulating tissue factor (TF) is an important determinant of coronary thrombosis. Among other cell types, such as monocytes, vascular smooth muscle cells (SMCs) are capable of releasing TF. When studied under static conditions, SMCs do release TF, but this process is slow and, thus, cannot explain the elevated levels of circulating TF, as observed in patients with acute coronary syndromes. The...

An artificial neural network (hence after, ANN) is an informationprocessing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. In previous two decades, ANN applications in economics and finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and time series forecasting, have dramatically increased. Many central banks use forecasting models based ...

This paper presents the Matlab package DeCo (Density Combination) which is based on the paper by Billio et al. (2013) where a constructive Bayesian approach is presented for combining predictive densities originating from different models or other sources of information. The combination weights are time-varying and may depend on past predictive forecasting performances and other learning mechan...

The Great Moderation is often characterized by the decline in the variability of output and inflation from earlier periods. While a multitude of explanations for the Great Moderation exist, notable research has focused on the role of monetary policy. Specifically, early evidence suggested that the increased stability has been associated with monetary policy that responded much more strongly to ...

We examine linear-quadratic (LQ) approximation of stochastic dynamic optimization problems in macroeconomics (and elsewhere), in particular in policy analysis using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. We first examine the approximation to a general dynamic programming problem, which can be obtained via the Hamiltonian of the problem. We then define the problem that is solved b...