We show that during the Great Recession, more-flexible sectors paid lower sectoral bond spreads. rationalize this fact with a model input-output linkages, heterogeneous elasticities, and binding working capital constraints in use of intermediates. difference flexibility between upstream downstream is key for determining role linkages amplifying or mitigating distortions. Calibrating to US econo...

We provide a new channel through which monetary policy has distributional consequences at business cycle frequencies. show that an unexpected easing increases labor income inequality between high-skilled and less-skilled workers. To rationalize these findings, we build New Keynesian DSGE model with asymmetric search-and-matching (SAM) frictions capital-skill complementarity (CSC) in production....

We investigate the susceptibility of democracies to demagogues, studying tensions between representatives who guard voters’ long-run interests and demagogues cater short-run desires. Parties propose consumption investment. Voters base choices on current-period valence shocks. Younger/poorer economies economically disadvantaged voters are attracted demagogue’s disinvestment policies, forcing far...

This paper combines a data-rich environment with machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors (“belief distortions”) embedded in survey responses. We find sizable distortions even for professional forecasters, all respondent-types overweighting the implicit judgmental component their forecasts relative what can be learned from publicly avai...

We study the relationship between domestic-demand shocks and exports using data for Spanish manufacturing firms in 2002–2013. Exploiting plausibly exogenous geographical variation caused by Great Recession, we find that whose domestic sales declined more experienced a larger increase export flows, controlling firms’ supply determinants. This result illustrates capacity of markets to counteract ...

We provide new evidence on business cycle fluctuations in skewed labor income risk the United States, Germany, Sweden, and France. document four results. First, all countries, skewness of individual growth is strongly procyclical, whereas its variance flat acyclical. Second, this result also holds for continuously employed, full-time workers, indicating that hours margin not main driver; additi...

The challenge for stabilization policy presented by the COVID-19 pandemic stems above all from disruption of circular flow payments, resulting in a failure what Keynes (1936) calls “effective demand.” As consequence, economic activity many sectors can be inefficiently low, and interest-rate cannot eliminate distortions—not because limit on extent to which interest rates reduced, but reductions ...

The natural rate is the equilibrium rate under flexible prices, and the gap is the difference between the actual and natural rates. Since prices adjust eventually, the Beveridge–Nelson (B–N) decomposition gives the statistical counterparts of the two notions. Measuring cycles in the gap is of interest from the new neoclassical synthesis perspective. The Bayesian multivariate B–N decomposition g...

We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future. We make various assumptions about how forecasters round their forecasts, including that individuals have constant patterns of responses across forecasts. Our primary interests are the impact of rounding on assessments ...

This note analyses the interaction between nominal wage stickiness and costly employment adjustment in a small closed-economy New Keynesian model with simple rule-based or optimal monetary policy. The results show (1) the costs of nominal and real rigidity to depend on the policy regime, (2) optimal policy to substantially contain the welfare loss, and (3) the absence of quantitatively importan...