This paper develops a framework for stress-testing the credit risk of Chinese commercial banks to macroeconomic shocks. Using data over the period 1985-2008, this study establishes a vector auto-regression (VAR) model to describe the links between default rate and macroeconomic factors, and then designs three stress scenarios to implement the stress testing by Monte Carlo simulation. As a resul...

The following are highlights from the new series, Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes Topic Review. This series will summarize the most important manuscripts, as selected by the Editor, that have published in the Circulation portfolio. The objective of this new series is to provide our readership with a timely, comprehensive selection of important papers that are relevant to the qu...

In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation. I find that as forecasters become older and more established, they produce more radi...

Small–scale VARs are widely used in macroeconomics for forecasting U.S. output, prices, and interest rates. However, recent work suggests these models may exhibit instabilities. As such, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve their forecast accuracy. These include using different observation windows for estimation, intercept correction, time–varying parameters, ...

This paper studies under which conditions the share of profit in value added, financial constraints on investment and capital shortage may foster unemployment and may limit the growth of capital and/or the growth of aggregate demand, in a stock-flow consistent model. The efficiency of demand side versus supply side economic policies (decrease of the real interest rate and/or of the real wage, i...

This paper studies the institutional design of the coordination of macroeconomic stabilization policies within a monetary union in the framework of linear quadratic differential games. A central role in the analysis plays the partitioned game approach of the endogenous coalition formation literature. The specific policy recommendations in the EMU context depend on the particular characteristics...

The influence of free base of quinolinilporphyrin and its Zn complex on infectivity of lactophages E3, E5 and E17 has been studied. The results of our investigations show that inhibition of lactophage activity by Zn complex of quinolinilporphyrin at concentration 10 microM and 20 microM was in the range 53-62% and 65-85%, respectively. The presence of this porphyrin in nutrient medium prevents ...