We derive generalization error bounds — bounds on the expected inaccuracy of the predictions — for traditional time series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space models. These bounds allow forecasters to select among competing models and to guarantee that with high p...

E C O N O M I C R E V I E W Second Quarter 2006 Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are becoming increasingly popular in central banking circles. The number of central bank–sponsored conferences on DSGE modeling and the amount of staff resources devoted to DSGE model development and estimation have risen dramatically over the past five years. This trend has affected monetary po...

I ran’s economy is suffering from sharp and persistent economic shocks and agriculture plays an undeniable role in its economic growth and development. The aim of this paper is to study the relative contributions of various macroeconomic shocks to generating fluctuations in Iran’s agriculture sector. To do so, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, emphasizing on the ...

This paper develops a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Canadian economy and evaluates the real effects of monetary policy shocks. To generate high and persistent real effects, the model combines nominal frictions in the form of costly price adjustment with real rigidities modelled as convex costs of adjusting capital and employment. The structural parameters identif...

In the paper we estimate a simple New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium NK DSGE model on basis of Polish macro data from period 2000-2019. The is specified similarly to Galí (2008) with use Bayesian approach. combines advantages both structural models and time-series and, therefore, shows significant degree alignment empirical data. estimation based prior distribution input param...

This thesis is concerned with three questions: first, how can the effects macroeconomic policy has on the economy in general be estimated? Second, what are the effects of a pre-announced increase in government expenditures? Third, how should monetary policy be conducted, if the policymaker faces uncertainty about the economic environment. In the first chapter I suggest to estimate the effects o...

This article raises the question of conduct a common macroprudential policy aimed at correcting specific financial imbalances in presence structural heterogeneity that characterizes monetary zone, this case WAEMU zone. For reason, we develop neo-Keynesian DSGE[1] model an open economy with two countries, namely core countries and those periphery, increased frictions. The results show heterogene...

Economists have been coming up with business cycle models since the time of Smith, Ricardo, and Marx [5]. Most modern economists take Samuelson’s Multiplier-Accelerator model [12], and Keynes’ model of deficient demand as the starting points for modern policy debates, with the Real Business Cycle model and it’s ‘computable’ variant, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE), the m...

Considering that the effect of different types energy on sustainable development differs, optimization structure is commonly seen as a decisive factor for development. In this study, we focus and construct dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) analysis framework including environment, society, economy. Furthermore, analyze technology shocks when proportion clean separately set at 10%, 2...