Environmental stressors often show effects that are delayed in time, requiring the use of statistical models that are flexible enough to describe the additional time dimension of the exposure-response relationship. Here we develop the family of distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM), a modelling framework that can simultaneously represent non-linear exposure-response dependencies and delayed ...

I my earlier paper (Smyth, 1975b) I combined a distributed lag or permanent income consumption function with a lagged tax function. Bradley (1976) disputes my finding that short, two-period, oscillations may result and that consequently the presence of built-in flexibility of taxation may be destabilising rather than stabilising. Bradley reaches his conclusion by limiting consideration to param...

Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main essential with which an economy is managed and run. While planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial estimates and targets ...

The current paper demonstrates a dichotomy of the growth response to changes in the barter terms of trade (TOT), employing as case studies the following two African countries: Botswana and Nigeria. Using distributed-lag analysis, the paper finds that the effect of TOT on output is positive and negative for the two countries, respectively. I interpret these results as supportive of the 'resource...

In this paper we suggest a methodology to formulate a dynamic regression with variables observed at different time intervals. This methodology is applicable if the explanatory variables are observed more frequently than the dependent variable. We demonstrate this procedure by developing a forecasting model for Singapore’s quarterly GDP based on monthly external trade. Apart from forecasts, the ...

in the present study, the effect of core on shear lag phenomenon in tubular structures is investigated. three different tubular structure models including model without core, model with central core and model with central core but eliminated in last 15 stories have been analyzed. a shear lag index is defined for evaluating these models. from examination of the results, the effective influence o...

Although we expect managers to use the capabilities of business analytics systems to search for solutions and improve firm performance, we do not have a good understanding of the factors that motivate managers to undertake such search. Drawing on attribution and control theories, we propose a theory that explicates the performance conditions under which managers undertake search activities. Spe...

The relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We estimated the effect of this ex...

Adiqa Kiani ABSTRACT Using Tornqvist-Theil Index, average annual total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate of all major and minor crops in NWFP is found to be 1.5 percent, during 1969-2004. The marginal internal rate of return to provincial investment in research for TFP growth was in the range of 34 to 42 percent over the same period. Almon distributed lag model has also been estimated, usin...

forecasting stock price had been paying attention to many analysts and stockholders. today, this issue more recent years has been do by new methods but new methods, good enough, not have analysis of description and changes effective variables on stock price whereas all this method rely on regression bases. ardl (autoregression distributed lag ) of one equation cumulative regression method obtai...