Generalized Additive Models (GAM) are a widely popular class of regression models to forecast electricity demand, due to their high accuracy, flexibility and interpretability. However, the residuals of the fitted GAM are typically heteroscedastic and leptokurtic caused by the nature of energy data. In this paper we propose a novel approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance of th...

The practice of target pricing has been a key factor in the success of Japanese manufacturers. In the more commonly-known demand-side approach, the target price for the supplier equals the manufacturer’s market price less a percent margin for the manufacturer but no cost-improvement expenses are shared. In the supply-side approach, cost-improvement expenses are shared and the target price equal...

This paper describes a new method for the evaluation of non-utility generation impacts on preventive-corrective control of power systems. The proposed method relies on a mixed integer nonlinear optimization and is capable of recognizing the effectiveness of demand side preventive-corrective actions. A number of cases are presented to illustrate the consequences of introducing demand side action...

This paper describes a new method for the evaluation of non-utility generation impacts on preventive-corrective control of power systems. The proposed method relies on a mixed integer nonlinear optimization and is capable of recognizing the effectiveness of demand side preventive-corrective actions. A number of cases are presented to illustrate the consequences of introducing demand side action...

This article introduces modern optimization models and solution methods for two fundamental decision making problems in electric power system operations, the optimal power flow (OPF) problem and the unit commitment (UC) problem. The article surveys some of the most recent advances, including global optimization techniques for exact solution of the OPF problem, adaptive robust optimization model...

Investments in cost reductions are critical for the long run success of companies that operate in dynamic and stochastic market environments. This paper studies optimal investment in cost reductions as a real option under the assumption that a single firm faces two different sources of risk, stochastic demand and input prices. We derive optimal investment strategies for a monopoly as well as a ...

As the transition to renewable energy sources progresses, their integration makes electricity production increasingly fluctuating, also causing amplified volatility in electricity prices on energy markets. To contribute to power grid stability, utilities need to balance volatile supply through shifting demand. This measure of demand side management creates flexibility, being enabled as the inte...

Uncertainty on the supply side is a common issue planners face. How do decision-makers incorporate inventory uncertainty when placing orders? We investigate ordering decisions under two forms of regarding total available to satisfy demand: (SU; unreliability in incoming shipments) and record inaccuracy (IRI; internal inefficiencies leading discrepancy between physical recorded inventories). The...