This paper presents an econometric model that combines macroeconomic time series data with historical series relating to political instability in Israel during the Intifada period, in order to provide a conservative estimate of the extent to which variations in economic performance over time have a political explanation. Political instability is found to have a substantial effect on the cyclica...

We studied 56 patients with fractures of the tibial shaft in a multicentre prospective randomised trial of three methods of external fixation. Group I was treated with a fixator which was unlocked at 4 to 6 weeks to allow free axial compression (axial dynamisation) with weight-bearing. Group II was treated with a fixator that was similarly unlocked at 4 to 6 weeks but included a small silicone ...

Although many articles have been written concerning the improved accuracy of combined forecasts, sometimes the obvious is overlooked. By combining seasonal indices and cyclical factors with other explanatory variables, forecasting models acquire increased accuracy for out-of-sample predictions.. This paper encourages the use of least squares forecasting models with time series components. It al...

We have recently introduced an incremental learning algorithm, Learn.NSE, for Non-Stationary Environments, where the data distribution changes over time due to concept drift. Learn.NSE is an ensemble of classifiers approach, training a new classifier on each consecutive batch of data that become available, and combining them through an age-adjusted dynamic error based weighted majority voting. ...

This paper considers nine long Swedish macroeconomic time series whose business cycle properties were discussed by Englund, Persson, and Svensson (1992) using frequency domain techniques. It is found by testing that all but two of the logarithmed and differenced series are nonlinear. The observed nonlinearity is characterized by STAR models. The statistical and dynamic properties of the estimat...

Over the years, many researchers have proposed theoretical models of problem-solving. These models work a problem in a sequential and rational manner. Through our professional experience and an action research study, we discovered fundamental differences between what these models describe and what actually happens when problems are solved in a real-world setting. Assisting with a process improv...