The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative contribution of a wide array of determinants to outbreak of financial crises in the EU candidate countries (Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey) and to identify the best-performing early warning indicators of financial crises. We have estimated a binomial logit model of the three EU candidate countries for the period 2005Q1 to 2009Q4 using actua...

in this paper, asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuation (according to positive and negative shocks) on real output were investigated. in the meantime, the study of behaviour of real output growth in iran’s economy over the period 1338-1386 was done. in specification of the output growth equation, in spite of considering positive and negative shocks of exchange rate, the effects of other ...

At a geographical and strategic confluence, the ancient city of Beirut, Lebanon, has witnessed crises from natural human causes over centuries. The modern urban peri-urban development is result neo-classical economics, laissez-faire regulations, complex socio-political structures. This article considers contemporary housing situation asks about its resilience to crises. methodological approach ...

the fetal origins hypothesis (foh), put forward in the epidemiological literature and later flourished in the economics literature, suggests that the time in utero is a critical period for human development. however, much attention has been paid to the consequences of fetal exposures to more extreme natural shocks, while less is known about fetal exposures to milder but more commonly experience...

oil prices may be having a direct and indirect effect through the exchange rate on the price of agricultural commodities. in this paper, the impact of world oil prices and exchange rate shocks on prices of specific agricultural commodities including wheat, corn, soybeans and sunflowers in iran is discussed. for this purpose, vector autoregressive model with monthly data over the period 2010-199...

In this second paper in a series of four, we examine how the era sustained economic growth also gave rise to recurring crises. Assessing turbulence late 19th century and early 20th century, three prominent crises 21st centuries: period following Second World War, 1980–1981 Recession 2008 Financial Crisis, survey economy policy have reacted historically shocks growth, restructured industry work,...

The growing interconnections among societies have facilitated the emergence of systemic crises, i.e., shocks that rapidly spread around world and cause major disruptions. Advances in interdisciplinary field complexity can help understand mechanisms underpinning crises. This article reviews most important concepts findings from pertinent literature. It demonstrates an understanding nature disrup...

The identifi cation and assessment of systemic risks is a core function of macro-prudential supervision. There are four broad approaches for analytical models and tools that can support this function. The fi rst three each aim to detect early one of the three main forms of systemic risk, namely the endogenous build-up and unravelling of widespread imbalances, exogenous aggregate shocks and cont...

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different obje...