Two alternative methodologies are compared for identifying common trends and cycles in a set of variables. One, following Harvey, uses an unobserved components structural time series model. The other, following Vahid and Engle, is based on a multivariate BeveridgeNelson decomposition. Both approaches are applied to a four sector model of output in the UK over the period 1970Q1-1993Q2, producing...

this paper identifies characteristics of business cycles in iran, applying hodrick-prescott (hp) and band-pass (bp) filters. using seasonal and anual data for 1970-2003, it is found that oil income is the key driving factor of business cycles in the iranian economy. furthermore, it is indicated that iran's economy has experienced seven business cycles during this period, in which the econo...

We analyze the implications of financial openness to macroeconomic volatility in a small open economy. The volatility of major macroeconomic aggregates shows non-monotonic pattern with respect to the degree of financial openness in the model without domestic financial frictions. The introduction of domestic financial frictions makes the volatility patterns flatter. Our model explains the lack o...

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices, and the Great Moderation are linked. First we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until the second quarter of 1982, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ...

Most quantitative studies of international real business cycle (IRBC) models require the use of approximate solution methods. We solve an IRBC model with incomplete asset markets using King, Plosser and Rebelo’s (1988) linear approximation method. We quantify the additional approximation error brought about by the existence of a unit root in the linear dynamic system and demonstrate that the sy...

This paper provides a theoretical model of an open economy credit channel including currency mismatch and financial fragility where exporting firms have access to international credit but non-exporting firms do not. The impact of the crisis is predicted to be dramatically different for exporters/non-exporters. We examine firms’ access to external finance in four Asian economies after 1997 using...

The consumption Euler equation implies that the output growth rate and the real interest rate are of the same order of integration; i.e., if the real interest rate is I(1), then so is the output growth rate and hence log output is I(2). To estimate the natural rates and gaps of macroeconomic variables jointly, this paper develops the multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition with I(1) and I(2...

The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer c...

Fully rational agents are allowed to optimize over expectations formation technologies in an environment where it is costly to collect and process information. It is shown in a general equilibrium framework that optimization over expectations by rational and forward oriented agents can lead to endogenous instability. Specifically, we illustrate that resulting equilibria can be both chaotic and ...