We propose an analytical approximation of the term structure of interest rates under general diffusion processes of the short-rate and state variables. A method of approximating conditional moments as the solution to a system of ordinary differential equations is applied to the pricing of bonds. Numerical experiments based on two illustrative models show that the second-order approximation is a...

This paper proposes using computational learning theory (CLT) as a framework for analyzing the information processing behavior of firms; we argue that firms can be viewed as learning algorithms. The costs and benefits of processing information are linked to the structure of the firm and its relationship with the environment. We model the firm as a type of artificial neural network (ANN). By a s...

In a Bayesian analysis, different models can be compared on the basis of the expected or marginal likelihood they attain. Many methods have been devised to compute the marginal likelihood, but simplicity is not the strongest point of most methods. At the same time, the precision of methods is often questionable. In this paper several methods are presented in a common framework. The explanation ...

Only 5.5 percent of black males married white females in 1990, and the family-income premium for intermarried black males was 7 percent. This paper estimates the impact of the mating taboo, courting opportunities, and individual endowments on the black male marriage market. Results indicate that eliminating the mating taboo would raise the intermarriage rate from 5.5 to 64 percent, and do away ...

This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics, emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their environment use simple decision heuristics. Central to our is the question under which conditions macro-system interacting may or coordinate on equilibrium outcome. A general finding that po...

the paper examines for the first time the foreign exchange intervention policy in foreign exchange market of iran. and in this framework, the study designs and simulates the foreign exchange intervention model in iran. in the first section, the paper shows that the injection of oil revenues directly to economy and also the absence of potent structure of output are inclusively caused the central...

Constraints on downside risk, measured by shortfall probability, expected shortfall etc., lead to optimal asset allocations which differ from the mean-variance optimum. The resulting optimization problem can become quite complex as it exhibits multiple local extrema and discontinuities, in particular if we also introduce constraints restricting the trading variables to integers, constraints on ...

Using a model of substitutable goods I determine generic conditions on tastes which guarantee that fixed prices are not optimal: the fully optimal tariff includes lotteries. That is, a profit maximising seller would employ a haggling strategy. We show that the fully optimal selling strategy in a class of cases requires a seller to not allow themselves to focus on one good but to remain haggling...

This paper concentrates on stability properties of heterogeneous agent models which include trend traders. So far, papers have only described the models’ behaviour in the very long run. I propose an explanation for the phenomenon that computer simulations of these models regularly converge if certain parameter constellations are used. In particular, insights of physics concerning time-delayed f...