Relying on a present value model with time-varying expected returns, and incorporating a quite general class of processes to model bubble-like stock price deviations from the long-run equilibrium, we provide empirical evidence on the U.S. log dividend–price ratio over the 1871:1–2001:9 period, as well as for several sub-periods. The application of a momentum threshold autoregressive technique d...

This paper studies how certain speculative transitions in financial markets can be ascribed to a symmetry break that happens in the collective decision making. Investors are assumed to be bounded rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends. Investment strategies are dynamically changed based on realized returns within a game theo...

We analyze a simple model of an asset market, in which a large rational trader interacts with ‘‘noise speculators’’ who seek short-run speculative gains, and become active following a prolonged episode of mispricing relative to the asset’s fundamental value. Themodel gives rise to price patterns such as bubble dynamics, positive short-run correlation and vanishing long-run correlation of price ...

Managers are responsible for providing financial statements and they might try to make a good picture of their firm's conditions. Therefore, they try to delay the disclosure of bad news and release the good news as soon as possible. The ten-dency of managers toward hiding bad news increases the stock price crash risk. The protection of investor is one of the factors that can prevent from fallin...

A Lagrangian-Eulerian numerical scheme for the investigation of bubble motion in turbulent flow is developed. The flow is analyzed in the Eulerian reference frame while the bubble motion is simulated in the Lagrangian one. Finite volume scheme is used, and SIMPLEC algorithm is utilized for the pressure and velocity linkage. The Reynolds stresses are modeled by the RSTM model of Launder. Upwind ...

A trivariate vector autoregression time series process, based on a present-value land price model, is used to decompose Iowa farmland prices into fundamental and non-fundamental components. A recent study, by Falk and Lee (1998), found that non-fundamental shocks are an important source of volatility in farmland prices and it was interpreted that these price movements were due to fads not specu...

Motivated by the behavior of asset prices, trading volume and price volatility during historical episodes of asset price bubbles, we present a continuous time equilibrium model where overconfidence generates disagreements among agents regarding asset fundamentals. With short-sale constraints, an asset owner has an option to sell the asset to other overconfident agents when they have more optimi...

Deploy fuzzy logic engineering tools in the 0nance arena, speci0cally in the technical analysis 0eld. Since technical analysis theory consists of indicators used by experts to evaluate stock prices, the new proposed method maps these indicators into new inputs that can be fed into a fuzzy logic system. The only required inputs to these indicators are past sequence of stock prices. This method r...