Abstract: The European sovereign-debt crisis began in Greece when the government announced in December, 2009, that its debt reached 121% of GDP (or 300 billion euros) and its 2009 budget deficit was 12.7% of GDP, four times the level allowed by the Maastricht Treaty. The Greek crisis soon spread to other Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries, notably Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Us...

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal a...

While the importance of Granger-causal (G-causal) relationships for learning vector autoregressive models (VARs) is widely acknowledged, the state-of-theart VAR methods do not address the problem of discovering the underlying Gcausality structure in a principled manner. VAR models can be restricted if such restrictions are supported by a strong domain theory (e.g. economics), but without such s...

One of the most commonly used methods for modeling multivariate time series is the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). VAR is generally used to identify lead, lag and contemporaneous relationships describing Granger causality within and between time series. In this paper, we investigate VAR methodology for analyzing data consisting of multilayer time series which are spatially interdependent. Wh...

this study investigates the causal linkages between military spending and economic growth in opec selected countries (i.e. algeria, angola, nigeria, venezuela, iran, kuwait, saudi arabia and ecuador) by focusing country-specific analysis for the period 1995–2012. for this, the panel causality testing approach, the method developed by emirmahmutoglu and kose (2011) based on the vector autoregres...