Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures ...

The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses o...

[1] This study assesses the CMIP5 decadal hindcast/ forecast simulations of seven state-of-the-art oceanatmosphere coupled models. Each decadal prediction consists of simulations over a 10 year period each of which are initialized every five years from climate states of 1960/1961 to 2005/2006. Most of the models overestimate trends, whereby the models predict less warming or even cooling in the...

We investigate the individual and joint decadal variability of Southern Ocean state quantities, such as the strength of the Ross and Weddell Gyres, Drake Passage transport, and sea ice area, using the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research UK Chemistry and Aerosols (NIWAUKCA) model and CMIP5 models. Variability in these quantities is stimulated by strong deep reaching convective e...

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) are the two dominant lowfrequency modes in the North Pacific. This study focused on the simulation capability of the two leading lowfrequency modes in current-coupled models, based on 24 coupled model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results showed that most of these models cap...

Extreme precipitation events over India have resulted in loss of human lives and damaged infrastructures, food crops, and lifelines. The inability of climate models to credibly project precipitation extremes in India has not been helpful to longer-term hazards resilience policy. However, there have been claims that finer-resolution and regional climate models may improve projections. The claims...

[1] The trends of global precipitation in 1900–2005 are evaluated using a historical precipitation reconstruction and coupled model simulations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. A significant increasing trend in the global oceanic precipitation is identified in both the reconstruction and models. The trend from the reconstructed ...

Observations have reported a widespread dimming of surface incident solar radiation (Rs) from the 1950s to the 1980s and a brightening afterwards. However, none of the state-of-the-art earth system models, including those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), could successfully reproduce the dimming/brightening rates over China. We find that the decadal variability of ...