Simulation of The Impact of Income Distribution on Social Unrest Using Agent-based Modeling Approach

Abstract Poverty and various forms of inequality, including class, gender, racial, and ethnic inequalities, are caused by imbalances of power relations and make society prone to social instability and unrest; Inequalities that are by-products of the growing power imbalances between the rich and the poor. The problems of poverty and inequality are inextricably linked to powerful economic and political institutions, and silence on and denial of poverty contribute to its absence from the agenda of the political institutions. All of these provide grounds for social discontent and are the main causes of social unrest. This study investigates the effects of income distribution on social unrest using agent-based modeling. This model is simulated using Iranian data based on an environment that includes two smart agents including citizens and military forces. Agents react to events based on their income level, emotional threshold, and personality type. The purpose of the model is to analyze the interaction between citizens in social unrest and to examine the consequences of their actions with different behaviors of the military. This intelligent model with a agent-based simulation approach, allows the policymaker to change the parameters and assumptions of the model according to the prevailing conditions in society and study the possible policy outcomes. Based on the assumptions of this study and the results obtained from the simulation, it can be stated that when the level of reward for the military is low, the probability of victory of the rebellious citizens increases. Comparing the results of the model on the middle and high income status of the military forces shows that if the military reward is high, the government is less likely to win and civil war is more likely.