Simulation of the climate change impact on monthly runoff of Dez watershed using IHACRES model

Identification and analysis of flow fluctuations in consequences of climate change is one of the most important factors in water resources management planning and this is vital especially in areas where large crowds are engaged in agriculture. Dez watershed, as an agricultural hub in the country, is one of areas that river flow fluctuations caused by climate change can affect a large population. In this study, by using gridded precipitation data APHRODITE and gridded temperature data set CHCN-CAMS, the IHACRES hydrological model was calibrated for the basin. Therefore, with introduction the temperature and precipitation under 2.6 Scenario of fifth report (CMIP5) to hydrologic model, flow fluctuations of watershed is simulation in future. result indicate that the temperature increase of 0.17-2  and precipitation changes of 3 to 75 percent in 2011-2035 period compared to the historical period (1983-2007). Runoff simulation result for future period showed that increases of 9.7 percent in long-term average annual runoff compared to the historical period.