Possibility of Extracting Rules That Govern Behavior and Decisions of OPEC Member Countries Using the GMDH Method

OPEC acts as a crude oil balancing producer and is an important player in the global energy equations. It is therefore important for us to identify the norms that govern OPEC’s behavior in different time periods. Understanding these norms will help us to explain and forecast the future decisions of this influential organization on the crude market. We use information about 20 factors that impact production, such as various contract modules for joint and independent fields, transfer of technology as well as financing methods for development projects, to determine the reasons for member’s divergence from their agreed production to quotas.  Our study indicates that market share and revenue maximization policies are the key factors that lead to non-compliance of member states with their quotas. JEL Classification: Q30, C45, Q43, C02 Keywords: Rules extraction, GMDH, OPEC, behaviour and decisions, oil market and production quota