Identification of Key Factors Influencing Tourism Development with Foresight Approach (Case study: Yazd province)

The present study, with a futuristic approach, identifies the most important factors affecting the future status of sustainable tourism in Yazd province and examines the extent and manner of these factors on each other. This research was applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of its nature, based on new methods of futuristic, analytical and exploratory science, which has been carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. . The statistical population of the study was 18 tourism experts  of Yazd province. First,  29 components were composed of overwritten documents and theoretical sources, selection and matrix of cross-effects of components, and the analysis was done through the Mick-Mac software . Based on the results of the model, tourism in Yazd province is an un sustainable system and "the balanced distribution of facilities and amenities, and the social capacity of the local community in attracting tourists to act as an indispensable factor." None of the components of tourism development in Yazd province can be defined as a target factor. This indicates that the issue of tourism development in Yazd province is multilateral in terms of management and tourism elites of Yazd province. "Security" and "level of development and economic situation of the local community" are very close to the risk. "Drought", "Inflation" and "Participation and Strengthening of Nongovernmental Organizations" were the most influential ones. In total, 10 factors were selected as the key factors of tourism development in Yazd province. The level of development and the economic situation of the local community, targeting the allocation of tourism development credits, inflation, transportation infrastructure, services, intelligence and intelligence, droughts, and the quantitative and qualitative reduction of water resources, security, comprehensمive plans, NGOs and the improvement and development of inter-organizational relations were the key factors influencing tourism development in Yazd province.