Future study of natural gas consumption in Iran in the horizon of 2030; Approach Scenario making based on regression pattern Censored

Emissions of more than three-quarters of greenhouse gases by the energy sector have affected climate change in various economic, political and social sectors. Climate change is affecting energy consumption, including natural gas. This article deals with the future of natural gas consumption in the country with regard to climate change until 2030 using a combined approach of econometrics and scenario building. Natural gas consumption is projected to reach 337,113 million cubic meters by 2030 within framework of the baseline scenario, which is based on the continuation of the current trend and the results of the censored regression model (Tobit). Also, the future research of natural gas consumption in the form of eight scenarios, based on two key drivers of changes in temperature and price of natural gas, as well as the assumption of stability of trends: GDP, electricity consumption, energy intensity, consumption of petroleum products, population, has been examined. Findings show that a 4 degree increase in temperature will increase natural gas consumption to 358669 million cubic meters (with 78.7% growth compared to 2016 and 46.8% growth compared to 2020) in 2030, but rising natural gas prices could moderate that trend to some extent. JEL Classification: Q54, C24, Q47, Q31. Keywords: Climate change, Tobit regression, scenario building, natural gas demand forecast