Dynamics of habitat changes as a result of climate change in Zagros Mountains Range (Iran), a case study on Amphibians

Climate change is currently considered a serious threat for many species and recognized as one of the most important factors in the global biodiversity loss. Among animal groups, amphibians are known to be among the most sensitive groups of vertebrates to climate change due to their inability to travel long distances, and mountain habitat species are more exposed to climate change pressures than other species. Therefore, in this study, the current distribution potential of five species of amphibians living in the Zagros Mountains was assesed and their response to climate change in 2070 was predicted. To do so, a group approach for modeling the distribution of species (SDMs) was utilized to estimate the risks of losing the desired habitat potential in the event of climate change. Also, to estimate the desired habitat area in the context of climate change, calculations related to habitat area changes for each species were performed. Predictions showed that two out of five species studied, i.e., Azarbaijan Mountain Newt (Neurergus crocatus) and Yellow Spotted Newt (Neurergus derjugini) negatively reaction to climate change and their distribution range was predicted to be decreased and contracted. Habitat displacement behavior in the face of new changes is predictable for two species, i.e., Lorestan Toad (Bufotes luristanicus) and Fire Salamander (Salamandra infraimmaculata semenovi). Considering the speed of climate change in the Zagros Mountains, the present study is a step towards identifying the dynamics of habitat changes affecting amphibians of Zasgros region to cope with the impacts of climate change.