Determination of long-term slip rates of faults in the eastern part of Iran plateau using finite element kinematic model

Since Iran plateau is located in the Alpine-Himalayan Orogenic belt, it is recognized as a region with a high seismic risk. Thus, investigation of geodynamic activities of the faults, their slip rates and corresponding deformation fields is very important for quantification of possible seismic risk in this region. The aim of this study is to analyze the tectonic features of eastern part of Iran plateau and determine the long-term slip rates of active faults in this part. To do so, the velocity vectors of geodynamic stations, the directions of principal stresses from global models and fault slip rates derived from different geological sources are assimilated using kinematical finite element model (Neokinema) to derive the optimum slip rates on the fault surface. Neokinema uses three controlling parameters to run the model. These parameters are determined by sensitivity analysis. The final slip rates using this model are determined with the error of 1 mm/yr. To validate the results of Neokinema model, the slip rates of KouhBanan, Dasht-e Bayaz and Nayband faults computed from the model are compared with those of geological observations which illustrate a good consistency between model prediction and geologic observations.