A method to calculate the acceptance probability and risk of rejection of bid prices on the electricity market

After restructuring, Iran’s electricity market has become one of the most competitive markets in which generation companies offer their proposed price on several price benches. So, the decisions in this market can use statistical concepts. In this paper, a conceptual model is presented according to simultaneous analysis of probabilistic distribution for historical data of market clearing price and frequency of acceptance of bids. Based on this model, the probable value of market clearing price is measured through the risk of historical data price intervals and the decision is made about bidding strategy. Also, a method is proposed to calculate the probability of acceptance and risk of rejection of bids on the electricity market. The data (Spring 2014) from a power plant as a numerical example have been used to implement the method. The results show that there is no direct relation between the high or low price intervals and the risk of acceptance, but the probable data regarding the distribution of price intervals should be analyzed. Also, due to the risk of the proposed bid prices, this model is capable of applying risk-taking and risk-aversion and finally appropriate bid price is selected based on the risk appetite and acceptable risk level.