تحلیل تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر بارش‌های حدی حوزه سیل‌برگردان غرب تهران

The impacts of climate Change, more than being influenced by the change in precipitation amount, is affected by the changes imposed by this phenomenon on rainfall regime (intensity and frequency); it means that climate change can cause extensive droughts/floods due to impact on temporal and spatial rainfall distribution, and hence, conducting some studies on return period of extreme rainfalls seems to be necessary. Current paper investigates and analyzes the effect of climate change on extreme regime in WFD catchment at three time horizons (2036, 2060, and 2090) under A1B, A2, and B1 emission scenarios. Investigations (performed by the authors during previous researches) show that the most accurate which is capable of simulating the trend of precipitation variations in the studies catchment, would be MRI-CGCM3 Downscaling was performed using Change Factor (CF) method. The results are representative of reduction in rainfall amount in future time periods, So that the predicted rainfall reduce between 4.12 to 11.69 percent compared to observed baseline precipitation. In addition the result of extreme rainfall analysis show that by moving towards the distant future, the amount of annual extreme rainfalls decrease for a specific return period. However intensity and return period of a specific extreme rainfall increases significantly and therefore, applying adaptive measures for urban flood prevention in the catchment appears to be necessary.Also the probability of extreme rainfall occurrence with a given value in distant future is greater than near future.