برآورد قیمت مسکن در شهر مقدس مشهد با استفاده از مدل کاپلان‌مایر (منحنی احتمال بقاء)

Regarding the importance of housing in life, the investigation of various aspects of this issue such as housing price Estimation, identifying its affective factors and combination of price and its changes over the time is necessary. To achieve these goals, housing price in Mashhad has been estimated by using Kaplan Meier model both in apartment and in the villas. To meet this objective, 1000 examples of Housing and apartment’s price during 2010 and 2011 were extracted from khorasan newspaper ads. Data was scattered on the map, by Geographic information system (GIS) and its results was analyzed by SPSS software and Kaplan Meier model. The results of Kaplan Meier model showed that the difference in prices of villas and apartments based on the number of every house rooms is significant and the probability of villas prices are less than apartment prices according to the number of rooms, was confirmed. In addition of the 3 variables which entered in the equation, the variable of ''infrastructure level'' is the highest coefficient Equal to 1/196.Subsequently, the variable of "old building" has a coefficient equal to 0.973.After that, the variable of "land extent" with a coefficient equal to 0.996 is located in the second stage. Then the variable of "Age of Building" with a coefficient equal to .973 stands in the third stage. Also the spatial distribution of apartment and villa prices in the city of Mashhad indicated that the most expensive areas are mainly developed Regions or areas with high access (to holy shrine).