The Prediction Number of New Cases and Death of Gastric Cancer Among Iranian Military Community During 2007-2019

Introduction: Although the trend of incidence and mortality of gastric cancer is decreasing in globally, this cancer is a problem in some areas of Iran. The purpose of the current study was the prediction of the future trend of incident cases and mortality of gastric cancer information in the military community (MC) by using time series method. Methods: In This cross-sectional aggregate based study, the required information was obtained from insurance organization of Iranian military community. For selecting the best model, autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) statistics were used. Moreover, for identifying and fitting selected models, Tests of randomness on residuals and the schematic Checking of the residual graph were used. All analysis was performed by using Interactive Time Series Modeling Package (ITSM), stata14, and Excel software. All analysis was carried out by considering 0.05 for significance level. Results: 70.42% of cases were males and 29.58% were females. The mean age of patients was 69.51±11.52. The mean age of males and females were 70.15±11.08 and 67.98±12.36, respectively. The trend of overall incident cases of gastric cancer was increasing but mortality of this cancer had a constant trend. The trend of incident cases in males was increasing but the mortality had a constant trend. The trend of new cases and mortality in females was constant. Conclusions: the number of new cases of gastric cancer among Iranian MC males will increase in coming years, therefore programs to decrease main risk factors should be taken into account.