Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk in Women over 35 Years Old Living in Villages of Zanjan: A Study Based on Gail Model

Background: Breast cancer is one of the most important malignancies in both developed and developing countries. Objectives: To reduce the burden of this disease, the prediction of individuals at risk and implementation of efficient preventive interventions can be effective. The present study was aimed at investigating five-year and lifetime risks of the breast cancer in a rural community in Zanjan province, Iran. Methods: A total of 435 subjects aged 35 years old were randomly selected using systematic randomization in a rural community in Zanjan. The participation rate was 92.4% (402 women). Data collection instrument was a questionnaire in which all associated variables of Gail model and demographic information were included. The data were analyzed using SPSS software version 18, and mean cancer risks were reported. Results: Family history of breast cancer and history of breast biopsy were found to be positive in 3.5% and 0.3% of participants, respectively. Out of all participants, 84.3% were under 60 years old and 13.2% were illiterate. Five-year and lifetime mean risks were fund to be 0.74% and 7.6%, respectively. About 2% of the participants had a higher cancer risk>1.66%. Conclusion: The findings demonstrated that based on the Gail model, the lifetime risk of the participants will be one out of 13 women. Given the lower estimations of Gail model in the prediction of breast cancer, we suggest general population interventions and high-risk strategies be implemented to decrease problems associated with the breast cancer in the future.