Investigation of Bioclimatology Factors on Prediction of Honeybee Performance in Climate Change Conditions (Case Study: Shahindej)

Climatic variables are among the factors influencing the performance of various crop and livestock products. Considering the advanced climate change, the impact of climate indicators on livestock production can present an important challenge for producers. The prediction of crop yields is one of the most important issues in the food security debate to increase the economic efficiency of livestock production. In this research, the relationship between climatic elements and indicators with honey bee function in Shahindej was investigated. The length of the statistical period was 12 years from 2007 to 2018. First, elements and climatic indices that were highly correlated with product yield were identified. Then, by default, the honey yield prediction model was presented. The validity of the model is based on the linearity of the relationship between independent and dependent variables, then the normal distribution of the error values and the independence of the error values. In the end, the normal distribution of the dependent variable was tested. Output of the model results showed that product performance with temperature was significant. The accuracy of the honey performance model with a RMSE was 11%. Therefore, it can be said with great accuracy that the effect of climate change on a half-degree increase in temperature will reduce honey performance by about 40 tons per year. The results of the study of the trend of cold and cold climate indicators presented by the World Meteorological Organization's Climate Change Detection Panel, Indicates that the region under study is experiencing a warming process. Therefore, changes in bee function were mainly influenced by climatic factors.