Forecast of Iran’s Electricity Consumption Using a Combined Approach of Neural Networks and Econometrics

Authors

  • Roya Aghaeifar School of Economics and Political Sciences, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract:

Electricity cannot be stored and needs huge amount of capital so producers and consumers pay special attention to predict electricity consumption. Besides, time-series data of the electricity market are chaotic and complicated. Nonlinear methods such as Neural Networks have shown better performance for predicting such kind of data. We also need to analyze other variables affecting electricity consumption so as to estimate their quantitative effects. This paper presents a new approach for forecasting: a combined method of Neural Networks (ANN) and econometrics methods which can also explain the effect of rising electricity prices on consumption after the Subsidies Reform Plan. Data is from 1988-2008, and the method is compared with Neural Network and ARIMA based on the RMSE performance function that shows the advantage of the combined approach. The provident prediction is done for 2009- 2014 and indicated that after decreasing subsidy, electricity consumption would increase slightly until 2014.

Upgrade to premium to download articles

Sign up to access the full text

Already have an account?login

similar resources

scour modeling piles of kambuzia industrial city bridge using hec-ras and artificial neural network

today, scouring is one of the important topics in the river and coastal engineering so that the most destruction in the bridges is occurred due to this phenomenon. whereas the bridges are assumed as the most important connecting structures in the communications roads in the country and their importance is doubled while floodwater, thus exact design and maintenance thereof is very crucial. f...

the use of appropriate madm model for ranking the vendors of mci equipments using fuzzy approach

abstract nowadays, the science of decision making has been paid to more attention due to the complexity of the problems of suppliers selection. as known, one of the efficient tools in economic and human resources development is the extension of communication networks in developing countries. so, the proper selection of suppliers of tc equipments is of concern very much. in this study, a ...

15 صفحه اول

rodbar dam slope stability analysis using neural networks

در این تحقیق شبکه عصبی مصنوعی برای پیش بینی مقادیر ضریب اطمینان و فاکتور ایمنی بحرانی سدهای خاکی ناهمگن ضمن در نظر گرفتن تاثیر نیروی اینرسی زلزله ارائه شده است. ورودی های مدل شامل ارتفاع سد و زاویه شیب بالا دست، ضریب زلزله، ارتفاع آب، پارامترهای مقاومتی هسته و پوسته و خروجی های آن شامل ضریب اطمینان می شود. مهمترین پارامتر مورد نظر در تحلیل پایداری شیب، بدست آوردن فاکتور ایمنی است. در این تحقیق ...

eplicitation in interlingual and intralingual translations of shahnameh ferdowsi: a text linguistic approach

بررسی و مقایسه تفاوتها و شباهت های ترجمه ی درون زبانی و برون زبانی با تمرکز بر زبانشناسی متن. برای امر مقایسه میزان بسامد تصریح به کار رفته در ترجمه ی درون زبانی و نیز برون زبانی شاهنامه ی فردوسی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.

a synchronic and diachronic approach to the change route of address terms in the two recent centuries of persian language

terms of address as an important linguistics items provide valuable information about the interlocutors, their relationship and their circumstances. this study was done to investigate the change route of persian address terms in the two recent centuries including three historical periods of qajar, pahlavi and after the islamic revolution. data were extracted from a corpus consisting 24 novels w...

15 صفحه اول

a comparison of linguistic and pragmatic knowledge: a case of iranian learners of english

در این تحقیق دانش زبانشناسی و کاربردشناسی زبان آموزان ایرانی در سطح بالای متوسط مقایسه شد. 50 دانش آموز با سابقه آموزشی مشابه از شش آموزشگاه زبان مختلف در دو آزمون دانش زبانشناسی و آزمون دانش گفتار شناسی زبان انگلیسی شرکت کردند که سوالات هر دو تست توسط محقق تهیه شده بود. همچنین در این تحقیق کارایی کتابهای آموزشی زبان در فراهم آوردن درون داد کافی برای زبان آموزان ایرانی به عنوان هدف جانبی تحقیق ...

15 صفحه اول

My Resources

Save resource for easier access later

Save to my library Already added to my library

{@ msg_add @}


Journal title

volume 17  issue 3

pages  139- 159

publication date 2013-09-01

By following a journal you will be notified via email when a new issue of this journal is published.

Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023