Evaluation of coalbed methane potential in Parvadeh IV coal deposit in central Iran using a combination of MARS modeling and Kriging

Coalbed methane (CBM) plays an important role in coal mining safety and natural gas production. In this work, The CBM potential of B2 seam in Parvadeh IV coal deposit, in central Iran, was evaluated using a combination of local regression and geostatistical methods. As there were 30 sparse methane sampling points in the Parvadeh IV coal deposit, no valid variogram was achieved for the methane content. A multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model was used to reproduce the methane content data based on seam depth, thickness, and ash content. The MARS model results were used in ordinary kriging to estimate the methane content in all mine blocks. A combination of MARS modeling and ordinary kriging in CBM studies is introduced, for the first time, in this paper. The results obtained show that high methane zones are located in the central and south western parts of the deposit. The in situ CBM potential varies from 6.0 to 16.1 m3/t, and it was estimated to be 1.39 billion m3 at the average depth of 267 m in an area of 86.55 km2. Although this volume is remarkable, little is known as how much of this resource is actually producible. Consequently, high methane-bearing zones are highly recommended for further studies as a source of natural gas for extraction and reducing the hazards and explosion risks of underground coal mining.