Evaluation, Modeling and Forecasting of Neyshaboor Urban Development with Emphasis on Earthquake

Background and Objective: In the process of urban development, many agricultural and peri-urban agricultural land have been changed. On the other hand, the location and development of urban areas in many cases has led to ignoring natural hazards and natural hazards from threats It is the security of cities, one of the most important of these natural hazards is the earthquake. The purpose of this study was to investigate and predict land use changes in Neishabour city. Methodology: The purpose of this study is to use the ETM sensor images of 2000 and 2009 and the OLI sensor for Landsat satellite in 2018, and to analyze the data in the Arc GIS software environment Using the IDW model for zoning, the AHP model is used to weight expert opinions and to predict city development by the year 2030, the Markov chain model and CA Markov model have been used. Findings and results: The results of the research indicate that the future direction of the city of Neishabour tends to be more north and northeast, while the range is located in the middle of the earthquake hazard and the south and southwest of the city are low in the danger zone, while The future will not be the future, and by 1409 (2030) is the best direction for the development of the city to the south and southwest. In general, the northern part of the city, which is the main urban area and the city's development, is more at risk, because it is located in a zone of earthquakes with a low depth and in the earthquake zone of more than 7.4 millimeters and is less distant with active faults has it. And the south side, which is not the city's development, has fewer risks.