Dynamic model of COVID-19 disease and performance analysis of Iran, Germany and Turkey with experimental data

Covid-19 disease is caused by a new type of coronavirus, which is an infectious disease that has so far infected more than 90 million people and killed about 2 million. Hygiene programs, treatment, education, restrictions and other preventive measures are the inputs that can limit the spread of the disease, which in turn reduces the incidence of the disease. In this paper, in order to investigate some of the influential parameters, a nonlinear model is analyzed to investigate the effect of hygiene and education on the transmission dynamics of Covid-19 disease. Stability analysis and equilibrium points are examined to determine the generation number (R0), the number that determines whether the disease disappears or not. The first part of the results shows that proper education and hygiene will reduce the number of patients. Also, in the second part of the results, the experimental data of three countries, Iran, Germany and Turkey from the beginning of the outbreak until January 10th, are examined and statistically compared. Then, the performance of these three countries at the peak of the disease outbreak (November, December and January) is analyzed. The results show that Iran has performed relatively better, despite sanctions and a lack of facilities, especially in the last three months.