Analysis of the effects of COVID-19 virus on the Import, export and labor in Iran using system dynamic approach

The new coronavirus (COVID-19) is caused by the acute respiratory syndrome 2. The disease was first diagnosed in December 2019 in Hubei Province, Wuhan City, China. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared the virus an epidemic. Until Mid-February, 2021, about 112 million people worldwide have been infected with the virus, of which about 2.500.000 people have lost their lives, according to the latest global statistics from the Worldometer database. The economic shock of the coronavirus outbreak has also led to negative economic impacts, including declining sales of many related businesses. In this paper, the effects of coronavirus on the Iranian economy are examined with a systems dynamics approach. First, the relationships of important variables affecting GDP in SPSS software are obtained and then the data is analyzed using Vensim software. In the following, by analyzing the sensitivity and providing recommendations, the impact of managerial insights to control the conditions of this new crisis will be examined. The results show that the correct use of the mask and the observance of social distance as well as air flow in spaces and avoidance of closed spaces have a significant effect on reducing the spread of this disease and reducing mortality.